The result was the 2018 blue wave in which the Democrats took over the House of Representatives. The turnout of both groups spiked in 2018 as well. Trump has appeared to generate a countervailing enthusiasm among both educated white voters and minority voters. It would mean defying the polls again.”īut Mr. “Increasing registration while juicing turnout is his only play at this stage. “The combination of the president’s personality and style combined with the demographic challenges leaves very little margin for error,” said Ken Spain, a Republican strategist. In some key states including Pennsylvania and Florida, new Republican voter registrations have outnumbered new Democratic ones. “He has been trying to expand the Trump base that casts ballots, and they could substitute for the diminishing group of blue-collar whites.” Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia. “For his entire term, Trump has made very few attempts to reach out and broaden his coalition,” said Larry J. The president has shown little interest in expanding his appeal beyond that base, and his campaign has been working on a strategy of finding more such voters. Two years ago, even without the president on the ballot, white voters without college degrees turned out in numbers not seen in a midterm election in decades. Trump and Republicans - not just in approval polls that have been remarkably stable for four years, but also at the ballot box in 2018. “And those significant voter registration gains prove President Trump is expanding his base and will win four more years in the White House as a result.”Ĭertainly, these white non-college-educated voters continue to show enthusiasm for Mr. “As a clear show of support for the president’s policies, Americans are registering as Republican with a Republican president in office,” said Samantha Zager, a spokeswoman for the Trump campaign. His campaign leaders are betting that a two-year grass-roots mobilization that has yielded significant voter registration gains will overcome the demographic disadvantage and the polls, again. In key swing states, the changes far outstrip Mr. The number of voting-age white Americans without college degrees has dropped by more than five million in the past four years, while the number of minority voters and college-educated white voters has collectively increased by more than 13 million in the same period. The decline, a demographic glacier driven largely by aging, has continued since 2016. Trump just enough of a margin to win the election in 2016 - has been in a long-term decline, while both minority voters and white college-educated voters have steadily increased. The cohort of non-college-educated white voters - who gave Mr. Trump confounded the polls in part by generating an unanticipated level of enthusiasm and turnout from a group that had grown increasingly apathetic about elections: white voters without college degrees.īut in 2020, Mr. Source: Census Current Population Survey, IPUMS-CPS, University of Minnesota
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